US announces agreement to use Itaipu in AI projects in Paraguay
The U.S. State Department announced an agreement between the American company Crusoe and the Paraguayan company Araico to use energy from the Itaipu hydroelectric dam in an artificial intelligence project in Paraguay, considered one of the largest private investments in the country.
The US targets the Itaipu hydroelectric dam and moves closer to Paraguay, while Brazil acts with military caution on the border.
US interest in the world's largest binational hydroelectric dam reignites energy disputes, amplifies geopolitical tensions in South America, and leads Brazil to reinforce border surveillance with Venezuela.
Amid a growing instability in South America, a new diplomatic development involving the United States, Paraguay, and Brazil has begun to worry international authorities and analysts. According to O Globo , recent statements from representatives of the US government indicate a possible direct interest of the US in the Itaipu hydroelectric plant, considered one of the world's largest strategic energy assets.
The information was released by international media outlets and echoed by geopolitical analysts, who believe that Washington is considering expanding its energy presence in Paraguay precisely at a time when Brazil is renegotiating sensitive points of the Itaipu Treaty . The possibility of a shift in this historical balance has the potential to profoundly alter the regional dynamics.
Meanwhile, the Brazilian government adopted a cautious stance and reinforced security on its northern border , especially along the border with Venezuela, in light of the instability generated by recent US military actions in the neighboring country, as reported by Sociedade Militar.
Itaipu, strategic energy, and the interest of the United States.
Located on the border between Brazil and Paraguay , on the banks of the Paraná River , the Itaipu hydroelectric power plant is one of the largest energy engineering projects on the planet. With an installed capacity of 14,000 megawatts (MW) , it ranks second in the world , behind only the Chinese Three Gorges Dam .
Since its inauguration in 1984 , Itaipu has become an essential pillar of the regional energy matrix. Currently, the plant is responsible for about 10% of Brazil's electricity consumption and approximately 90% of the energy consumed by Paraguay , highlighting the strategic interdependence between the two countries.
However, this balance has returned to the center of the debate with the renegotiation of the so-called Annex C of the Itaipu Treaty , which regulates the commercialization of surplus energy produced by the plant. Historically, Brazil buys the Paraguayan quota at pre-defined prices, which limits Paraguay's ability to negotiate this energy at higher values in the international market.
It was in this context that, in May 2025 , statements by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio drew attention. According to him, the United States would be willing to participate in discussions about the future of Itaipu's energy, opening space for a possible direct partnership with Paraguay, which could reduce Brazilian influence in the agreement.
Geopolitical strategy, China and the role of Paraguay
Experts believe this move is part of a broader US strategy to contain Chinese influence in South America , especially in sectors considered critical, such as energy and infrastructure. By strengthening energy alliances, Washington expands its political and economic presence in the region.
Paraguay, in turn, is showing interest in maximizing revenue by selling its surplus energy at more competitive prices on the international market—something that the current agreement with Brazil limits. This factor explains Paraguay's willingness to expand negotiations and consider new strategic partners.
Despite this, Brazil and Paraguay resumed bilateral negotiations in December 2025 , with meetings led by Foreign Ministers Mauro Vieira , for Brazil, and Rubén Ramírez Lescano , for Paraguay. The official objective is to preserve sovereignty, guarantee mutual benefits, and maintain Itaipu as a symbol of regional cooperation.
Still, the potential entry of the United States into the picture adds uncertainty. Analysts warn that a possible loss of Brazilian prominence in Itaipu would represent not only an economic impact , but also a geopolitical setback , ignoring decades of Brazilian investment in the construction, operation, and maintenance of the power plant.
Brazil reinforces border with Venezuela in the face of instability.
While the energy debate progresses, the Brazilian government is acting on another sensitive front. According to CNN Brasil , the deployment of the National Public Security Force has been authorized on the border with Venezuela, specifically in the municipalities of Boa Vista and Pacaraima , in Roraima, for an initial period of 90 days .
The decision was signed by the Minister of Justice and Public Security, Ricardo Lewandowski , and published in the Official Gazette of the Union . The objective is to preserve public order and protect the local population from risks associated with Venezuelan instability.
There are concerns that armed militias linked to the Nicolás Maduro regime , members of organized crime , and drug cartels will attempt to cross the Brazilian border seeking refuge, especially after the US-led military operation that resulted in Maduro's capture.
The Roraima region already faces historical challenges related to Venezuelan migration , which puts pressure on public services and infrastructure. The National Force will act in support of state forces, focusing on patrolling, monitoring, and humanitarian actions , while the Brazilian Army maintains reinforced surveillance.
Brazilian authorities emphasize that the mobilization is preventive and planned , without any intention of military escalation, but reflects real concerns about the possible spillover of the Venezuelan crisis into national territory.
The capture of Maduro and the expansion of the US interventionist doctrine.
The arrest of Nicolás Maduro marked a turning point in hemispheric relations. The operation, dubbed "Absolute Resolution ," was described as the fastest in history to overthrow a dictator who had been in power for almost 13 years , since Maduro assumed the presidency in 2013 after the death of Hugo Chávez .
The operation involved US special forces, coordinated attacks in Caracas , approximately 100 deaths , and the detention of Maduro and his wife. US President Donald Trump justified the intervention as necessary to eliminate threats to regional security, although the operation provoked international condemnation and protests in several countries.
Since then, Trump has broadened the scope of his rhetoric, suggesting interventions in Mexico , making threats against Cuba , citing possible actions against Colombia , Nicaragua , and even countries outside Latin America, such as Iran , in addition to controversial statements involving Greenland .
This stance reignites debates about the Monroe Doctrine , historically used to justify the influence and interventions of the United States in the region.
In the case of the Itaipu hydroelectric plant , this context adds an extra layer of complexity. If Brazil loses influence over the project, experts warn of risks to energy security , increased costs, and greater external dependence.
As negotiations continue, the region is closely watching to see if this scenario will result in a new cycle of geopolitical tensions or in diplomatic solutions capable of preserving sovereignty and regional stability.
https://www.sociedademilitar.com.br/2026/01/eua-miram-a-usina-de-itaipu-se-aproximam-do-paraguai-enquanto-o-brasil-age-com-cautela-militar-na-fronteira-fplv.html#goog_rewarded
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