UK attacks on Isis met with public support as anti-war protesters warn of long-term threat

Britons are overwhelmingly supportive of attacks on Islamic State militants, though air strikes are already taking a political toll

Emma Graham-Harrison
The Observer, Saturday 27 September 2014 21.36 BST
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In recent days Turkey has seen the biggest influx of Syrian refugees since the war began there three years ago. Photograph: Sedat Suna/EPA

Opposition to UK air strikes in Iraq, which began on Saturday with the sortie by Tornado jets stationed in Cyprus, has been dimmed by the scale of Isis atrocities – including the gruesome beheadings of western hostages – that have helped forge a reluctant but unusually large groundswell of support for military action.

Anti-war campaigning has already begun, though – a shadow cabinet minister has resigned over the bombing, and much of the backing appears to be restricted to limited efforts to contain the radical group. So if reports of civilian casualties mount fast or air strikes escalate into a more full-blown military role, it could soon sap public enthusiasm.

For now, many activists who campaigned against previous wars have become convinced that bombs are the only way to stop further massacres of religious minorities, extreme sexual violence against women and all the other miseries Islamic State (Isis) has trailed in the wake of its conquests so far.

"I have doubt for the first time," said Nadje Al-Ali, a professor of gender studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, and founding member of Act Together: Women's Action for Iraq. "I can't think of the alternative that would prevent the larger loss of life."

An outspoken opponent of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, she has no illusions about the risks of a military campaign, but sees no other way to stave off a humanitarian disaster. "We are choosing between bad and worse," Al-Ali said. "I know the longer [a bombing campaign] goes on the greater the chance that there are actually more civilians who are dying as a result of it."

Both Isis brutality and the group's slick promotion of atrocities on the internet and through social media had helped swing public opinion across the UK strongly behind military action, said Ben Page, chief executive of polling organisation Ipsos MORI.

"Does everybody think we are going to fix it? Probably not, but it's just this feeling of absolute revulsion at what has happened," Page said. "The public in both Britain and America have switched … in both countries you've now got between 65% and 71% saying they support the government attacking Isis."

That outweighs backing for any military action since the Afghan Taliban government was toppled in 2001. President Obama once dubbed the conflict that followed the "good war", but western strategic failures have fuelled a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan and the anti-war movement at home.

Many supporters of a limited bombing campaign are already worried that the war against Isis could also turn sour in the longer term. Politicians have already admitted the campaign will last for years, even though they have sworn there will be no western boots on the ground.

"Air strikes is a bitter choice for me; I am anti-war, but there is no other way now to temporarily contain Isis," said exiled Syrian journalist and activist Ghias Aljundi. "But I don't trust what is going on, I can't see a plan, a strategy."

Bombing campaigns against Isis will damage the group's military strength, but could also bolster local support beyond an original core, if anger about civilian deaths and destruction of cities is channelled towards the bombers rather than their targets.

"One could argue that there are short-term needs for quite decisive and dramatic military action," said Charles Tripp, professor of politics specialising in the Middle East at the University of London. "But then longer term or medium term it carries the danger that you are actually creating a cement of resentment that holds the non-ideologically committed to this organisation."

Among those who warn that military action will not stop Isis is the former shadow education minister Rushanara Ali, who left the opposition cabinet over its decision to back bombing raids.

"There can be no doubt that the actions of Isil [Islamic State] are horrific and barbaric, and I share the revulsion that everyone in our country feels towards them," she said in a letter of resignation to Labour party leader Ed Miliband. "However, I am not confident that this military action will be effective in the short term in just targeting the terrorists and not harming innocent civilians. Nor can I pretend to have confidence that there is a credible long-term strategy.

The veteran campaign group Stop the War has already started protests against the imminent bombing, with about 300 people attending a rally on Thursday. It also argues that the bombs will only fuel more extremism and further damage Iraq.

"Obviously people are divided and look at Isis and say we must do something. But our argument is that Isis are at least partly a product of the action we have taken in the past, and the action that is being contemplated will not resolve the problem," said Stop the War convener Lindsey German, shortly before the first bombers took off. "Although there is less opposition than there was in 2003, that will only go up as people see the consequences."

The public mood can shift fast. Although millions marched in London against the invasion of Iraq a decade ago, there was still significant support for that war among less vocal segments of the population, said Page. Within six months, as it became clear that the fighting would last much longer than politicians promised and no weapons of mass destruction were found, that enthusiasm evaporated.