https://www.nytimes.com/

Unemployment once again grows in Brazil and reaches 13 million

Unemployment rate stands at 12.6% in the quarter ended in February

The unemployment rate in Brazil was 12.6% in the quarter ended in February, according to data from the National Survey for Continuous Household Sample (Pnad Continuous) published on Thursday by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) . 

The result was in line with the median (12.6%) of the financial market estimates captured by  Broadcast Projections . Predictions ranged from 12.0% to 12.8%.

In absolute numbers, the result represents 13,121 million unemployed. However, according to IBGE, there was an improvement over the same period of the previous year. There are 426,000 fewer unemployed compared to a year earlier, equivalent to a decline of 3.1%. The total number of employed persons increased 2.0% in the period of one year, equivalent to the creation of 1.745 million jobs. The inactive contingent advanced 0.6%, 378 thousand more people in this condition.

The level of employment, which measures the percentage of employed persons in the working-age population, was estimated at 53.9% in the quarter ended in February.

According to coordinator of Work and Income, Cimar Azeredo, at this time of year rate growth is an expected move. "Always in the first quarter of the year the rate tends to rise, as there is the dismissal of temporary workers hired for the holidays," he explained.

In the same period of 2017, the unemployment rate measured by PNAD was 13.2%. In the quarter through January 2018, the result was 12.2%.

The average real income of the worker was R $ 2,186 in the quarter ended in February. The result represents an increase of 2.1% in relation to the same period of the previous year.

The usual mass of income paid to employed persons totaled R $ 194.1 billion in the quarter up to February, up 4.1% over the same period of the previous year.

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Unemployment in Brazil 2018

REFORM WORKER

Threats to employment

One item of retirement that, can be used to harm the employee is the authorization of outsourcing. "If I have a barrister, I can hire a freelancer to do the same duties and I will not have to pay any CLT. The legislation says that I can not fire a signed employee and rehire him in that capacity for less than 18 months, but the owner's conclusion may be that it will be more economical to send the person away and then rehire him as an outsourcer, " .

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The  unemployment  is the situation of lack of  jobs

Conjunctured unemployment

Cyclical unemployment is transitory, occurring during some periods. It can be calculated as follows:

Cyclical unemployment = Unemployment rate observed - natural unemployment rate

Cyclical unemployment is associated with fluctuations in economic activity, that is,  gross domestic product . This relationship is inversely proportional, as shown in  Okun's Law , which shows the inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and  economic cycles  (output gap) . The unemployment rate declines in periods of expansion and increases in periods of recession.

Okun's law can be formulated as follows:

Unemployment rate observed - natural unemployment rate = -  g  (Effective GDP / potential GDP) Where  g  is   any positive function .

In this way, we can predict the future inflation rate by observing the present economic cycle.

Given this relationship, we can consider that the causes and problems of cyclical unemployment are the causes and problems of economic cycles.

Frictional unemployment [ edit  | edit source-code ]

Frictional unemployment results from labor mobility and can be a component of natural unemployment. It occurs during the period of time when one or more individuals are unemployed from one job to another. It can also occur when you are going through a transition period, from one job to another, within the same area, as in  construction .

BRAZIL

In  Brazil , unemployment has another aggravation, which is the  migration  of people from one region to another in search of job opportunities. This is observed from the Northeast region   to the  Southeast  and from the  interior  to the  capitals  in the  Midwest  and  North regions . 

The migration of the less rich interior to the wealthiest capitals also occurs in the Northeast. The interior of this region sends migrants to both capitals and other regions (while  Maranhão , for example, focuses on  the  Eastern Amazon in its migration, migrants from  Bahia focus on 
São Paulo ), that is, the region is also heterogeneous in migratory flows.

The advance of  soy  in  South  generated  latifundiarização  that replaced the  smallholdings  toolcarriers  based rural colony of typical European settlement of  Central Europe  and regions of the world that this received settlers, and this generated a migration from the South to the interior of  South America .

NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT

According to the precepts of  the neoclassical economy , natural unemployment is the  rate  at which an  economy  tends in the  long run , being compatible with the state of equilibrium of  full employment
and with the absence of  inflation . In this situation, there are a number of workers without jobs, but the  supply and demand  for employment are in balance. For  Milton Friedman , 
 this rate would only include frictional and voluntary unemployment, in which case the unemployment known as structural and conjunctural was non-existent or not relevant.

Structural unemployment is a form of natural unemployment. In this case, there is a permanent imbalance between supply and demand (of workers) that is not eliminated by the variation of  wages .

It results from changes in the structure of the economy. These lead to mismatches in the employment of labor, as well as changes in the composition of the economy associated with development. Economic theory presents two causes for this type of unemployment: insufficient demand for goods and services and insufficient investment around the combination of unfavorable productive factors.

This type of unemployment is more common in  developed countries  due to the large  mechanization  of industries, reducing jobs.

Unemployment caused by new  technologies  - such as  robotics  and  computing  - is called "technological unemployment." It is not the result of an  economic crisis , but of the new forms of organization of labor and production. Both rich and poor countries are affected by structural unemployment, which is one of the most serious problems of our day.

The economic growth, or rather, the absence of it, has been pointed out as the main factor for the high levels of unemployment in Brazil. Of course, if we could maintain high rates of economic growth, the country would cure the problem of cyclical unemployment. However, structural unemployment, in which the wave of the worker has been replaced by machines or more modern production processes, can not be solved solely by economic growth. 

That work done by dozens of workers until the early  1980s  now only needs one operator, or in other words, dozens of jobs have turned into just one. Of course, if the economy is heated it will be easier for these workers to find other jobs.

It is common to associate structural unemployment with the industrial sector. This sector makes more evident the loss of jobs to machines or new production processes, but this also occurs in  agriculture  and providing sector  services .In many places, including Brazil, guilt is the  technology that would be stealing and condemning workers to indigence. 


 There is no doubt that technology is involved in the process, but it is a mistake to condemn it as the villain of structural unemployment. The invention of the  loom  mechanical , the  steam engine  or  plow  of  iron  were landmarks which resulted in a significant increase in productivity  and consequent reduction of  costs , allowing the entry of a huge contingent of excluded in  the consumer market . Just as we do today, employment has been impacted by these inventions for 150 years.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment

tags - labor reform - Brazil - federal government - labor and employment ministry

clt - unemployment - globe network - mass unemployment