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"Default" of court orders "scares a lot" the market, says former BC president
The former president of the Central Bank and founding partner of Gávea Investimentos, Arminio Fraga, gave an interview to GloboNews and called the maneuver by Economy Minister Paulo Guedes to pay the precatório "scary" and said he had "a smell of default".
"There are several dimensions to this story without wanting to go too far, but on the one hand you have the very concept of precatório, precatório is debt, it's a decision ultimately that the government has to pay. So, this smells like default, it's worrisome. And then there's the impact on the ceiling, yeah, it's hard to believe that this was a surprise. These things come in a legal pipeline that takes a long time, it doesn't show up like that overnight. It shouldn't be an object. of change in the ceiling. These are different angles, worrisome angles," he said.
The "maneuver" found by Guedes provides for the creation of a Proposal for a Constitutional Amendment for the payment of payment in installments above and R$ 455 thousand in nine years. In addition, for debts above R$ 66 million, Guedes promised to create a "precatório fund", which will be filled with funds from the privatizations promised by him since 2019. PEC has already been called in the market the "PEC do Calote".
In addition, Arminio said that the government lacked preparation to deal with these expenses and there is no reason for them to be treated as a "surprise". Yesterday, the economy minister himself admitted that the government "slept on the spot" by not observing the growth of what he called the "growth of the precatory industry".
In 2022, the federal government is expected to pay around R$90 billion in court-ordered debts, an increase from the R$54 billion in 2021.
Selic
This Wednesday (4), the Central Bank (BC) should increase the basic interest rate , the Selic, by one percentage point for the year 2021. With that, the rate that is currently at 4.25% would rise to 5 .25%. By the end of the year, however, the expectation is that there will be further increases, taking the Selic to a level of at least 7%.
Arminio said that the increase is a consensus among economists.
"It is more or less a consensus in the market that they are going to go up a notch. I think the biggest complication is coming forward, which will actually happen with inflation, with fiscal policy, which has passed a period of a certain illusion that the things were fine, for today I don't see any deviation from what appears to be this consensus," he said.
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source writing https://economia.ig.com.br/2021-08-04/calote-precatorios-guedes.html
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